Below-normal monsoon and West Asia conflict cloud India's agriculture outlook: BoB

The India Meteorological Department issued its first long-range forecast for the 2024 Southwest Monsoon, estimating rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Private weather forecaster Skymet has predicted a normal monsoon at 102% of the LPA with an error margin of 5%. The monsoon is critical for India’s agriculture, with over half of the country’s arable land dependent on rainfall. Concerns are arising from the potential impact of the El Niño phenomenon, which is typically associated with weaker monsoons in India. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in West Asia and their impact on oil prices add to the uncertainty surrounding the agriculture sector.