After the subcontracting state

The withdrawal from the port city of Berbera by regional powers distracted by war, marks the end of an external system that managed the Horn of Africa—and the beginning of a deeper structural collapse. This shift indicates that the 'subcontracting state' model, where external actors managed local security and infrastructure, is no longer viable as those actors prioritize other conflicts. The resulting vacuum suggests a period of heightened volatility and the potential for a total breakdown of the regional order that has existed for the last decade.