Iran conflict: NZ faces GDP contraction, shipping risks; Warehouse Group plans contingencies

New Zealand is bracing for economic fallout and potential supply chain disruptions due to the escalating conflict involving Iran. Westpac has downgraded its GDP forecasts, predicting a contraction in the June quarter, while The Warehouse Group is actively planning for potential disruptions to international shipping routes. The conflict's impact on global oil prices and critical maritime corridors poses a significant risk to the timely arrival of goods and overall economic stability in New Zealand. ## Latest Update The Warehouse Group is initiating contingency plans to address potential disruptions to its international shipping routes due to the conflict. The company is assessing the impact of potential delays and freight surcharges, aiming to mitigate the trickle-down effect on consumers. Mark Stirton is leading the scenario planning efforts. ## Timeline * **2026-03-25:** Westpac downgrades New Zealand's growth forecasts, predicting a GDP contraction in the June quarter due to the Iran conflict's impact on oil prices and inflation. * **2026-03-27:** The Warehouse Group begins contingency planning for potential disruptions to its international shipping routes due to escalating tensions in the Middle East involving Iran. ## What to Watch * Further disruptions to global shipping routes and the potential for increased freight costs. * The impact of rising inflation on consumer spending and overall economic activity in New Zealand. * Government and business responses to mitigate the economic and supply chain risks.