It's February 2020 all over again, but this time one man can end it

As the conflict in the Middle East intensifies, Australian economic institutions including the Treasury and the Reserve Bank are activating crisis response protocols. The situation, increasingly referred to as 'Trump's war,' has introduced a level of global uncertainty not seen since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020. While Australia's institutions have a strong track record of managing shocks, the unpredictable nature of the current US administration's involvement in the region presents a unique challenge. Markets are reacting to potential disruptions in energy supplies and the risk of a broader regional conflagration, which could lead to a significant global recession.