Iran War: Fertilizer, Helium Shortages Trigger Food Crisis; El Nino Threatens Crops

The war in Iran continues to disrupt global supply chains, particularly impacting fertilizer and helium availability. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route, has led to soaring fertilizer prices and threatens food security worldwide. Economists warn of a potential global recession as energy costs rise and governments consider fuel and food rationing. The conflict's impact extends beyond energy, affecting the AI industry due to helium shortages and data center destruction. A strong El Nino forecast for the second half of 2026 is expected to bring hotter, drier weather to Asia, further threatening crops and food supplies, compounding the existing challenges of fertilizer shortages and high fuel costs. ## Latest Update The forecast for a strong El Nino in the second half of 2026 is raising concerns about global crop yields, especially in Asia, as farmers already grapple with fertilizer shortages and high fuel costs due to the Iran war. India anticipates below-average monsoon rains, and Southeast Asia is also expected to be impacted, adding another layer of complexity to the food security crisis. ## Timeline * **2026-03-20:** The conflict in Iran disrupts fertilizer supplies, driving up energy costs and threatening food security in developing countries. * **2026-03-20:** American farmers face devastation due to fuel and fertilizer supply disruptions caused by the war, with input costs tripling in some regions. * **2026-03-20:** Economists warn of a catastrophic global supply shock, with oil prices potentially reaching $150–$180 per barrel and fertilizer prices surging. * **2026-03-20:** The destruction of data centers in Iran raises concerns about the long-term viability of the AI boom. * **2026-03-21:** Critical supply chains beyond oil, including helium and specialty gases, are facing unprecedented pressure due to the war. * **2026-03-23:** The war cripples Asia’s supplies of fertilizer and helium, threatening farms and chipmakers. * **2026-03-23:** A fertilizer plant failure in Australia exacerbates the impending food supply shortage. * **2026-03-24:** Soaring fertilizer prices could pressure the U.S. agricultural industry, which supports 50 million jobs. * **2026-03-24:** The war in Iran is expected to significantly impact grocery bills due to rising fertilizer costs. * **2026-03-25:** A top WTO official warns of a double threat to global food security due to fertilizer scarcity and high prices caused by the war. * **2026-03-27:** Farmers worldwide are feeling the squeeze of the Iran war, with rising gas prices and dwindling fertilizer supplies. * **2026-03-27:** The war in Iran is impacting fertilizer supplies and food prices, creating a "perfect storm" for California growers. * **2026-04-23:** Experts warn that the war with Iran threatens a global food crisis due to fertilizer shortages. * **2026-04-24:** A strong El Nino forecast is raising worries about global crops as the Iran war exacerbates existing challenges. ## What to Watch * Monitor the duration of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and its impact on global trade and supply chains. * Track the impact of rising fertilizer prices on crop yields and food prices in different regions. * Prepare for potential food rationing and supply disruptions, especially in developing countries and net food-importing nations.