Iran’s 2025-26 protests, resilience and political containment

Iran has ended 2025 and entered 2026 facing another significant wave of popular protests, triggered primarily by acute economic deterioration and a renewed collapse of the national currency. The Iranian rial dropped from 1.07 million per US$ in early November 2025 to 1.4 million by late December. Demonstrations began with bazaar merchants and wage earners but expanded to students and the urban middle class, incorporating political slogans such as 'death to the dictator'. While the protests are the most extensive since 2022, they lack unified leadership. The Iranian state has responded with 'containment governance', a mix of selective repression including death penalty threats from Ali Khamenei and the General Prosecutor, and calls for dialogue from President Pezeshkian. The movement reflects a cumulative stress test on the Islamic Republic's governing capacity amid macroeconomic exhaustion and renewed sanctions.