What Are the Chances Trump Attacks Iran?

The Trump administration is contemplating another attack on a foreign adversary, using a familiar script. Once again, the president has assembled what he described as an “armada” of ships within striking distance of his potential target and has told a nation’s leaders to make a deal—or else. The administration has provided hints at its rationale for military action and indications of what it wants from a deal, which the leaders of the nation in Donald Trump’s sights have summarily rejected. And the president has again said that time is quickly running out. Such presidential bluster might be dismissed as another example of Trump’s _Art of the Deal_ diplomacy—making exaggerated threats in the hope of forcing a negotiated settlement. But given that less than a month ago, Trump delivered on similar threats by carrying out a stunning, high-risk assault that dragged Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from his palace to a New York prison, another military assault, this time on Iran, is very possible. At least 11 U.S. naval ships were positioned around Venezuela when the United States struck. Now at least 10 are near Iran, including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, which left the Asia-Pacific region two weeks ago and just arrived in the Middle East. Over the past 10 days, the U.S. has also moved aircraft, drones, and air-defense systems to the region, just as it did in the run-up to the attack on Venezuela. And like Maduro, Iran’s leaders are signaling that they won’t agree to terms that the president says will avert a strike, namely swearing off any future work on nuclear weapons. Trump officials have suggested they are considering several targets in Iran but have yet to define what victory would look like or what they plan to do if strikes were to cause the regime in Tehran to fall. The Navy is “ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary,” [Trump said](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115972658725010644) on Truth Social on Wednesday. “Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal—NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS—one that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly of the essence!” He added: “The next attack will be far worse!” The threat of military strikes on troublesome regimes has become a hallmark of Trump’s second term. The United States conducted a weekslong campaign targeting Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen last year, followed by targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear program in June and this month’s raid targeting Maduro. If the U.S. attacks Iran, it would become the fifth country targeted since Christmas, joining Nigeria, Syria, Somalia, and Venezuela. But another round of strikes on Iran—if Trump ultimately decides to act—would be different and might not deliver the kind of quick military success that the president favors. Tehran has the most advanced military capabilities among the countries that the U.S. has targeted, both in terms of its national military and via its proxies, which pose a threat to American allies in the region. Even if the U.S. wanted to replace the top leader in Iran, as it did in Venezuela, there is no clear successor. Iran is run by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who serves as the supreme religious and military leader. The fall of the ayatollah could empower the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, a powerful branch of Iran’s security apparatus that operates independently of the nation’s armed forces. Although Trump’s recent threats have centered around nuclear talks, previous statements—as well as military planning—have suggested punishing the regime for its brutal repression of nationwide protests. U.S. officials told us that targeting those responsible for the repression is under consideration. This could include the National Information Network—the country’s internet-and-tech agency, which imposed a dayslong internet blackout as security forces carried out massacres against protesters. (Elon Musk has offered his Starlink satellite service to Iranian protesters, but access has been limited.) Planners also have looked at targeting whatever remains of the country’s air-defense system, and its ballistic-missile program. Advisers have leaned heavily toward the use of cyberattacks to limit any risk posed to U.S. personnel or military assets. “Chaos and entropy are the only possible path,” one official told us. What began as an outcry by the Iranian public over the country’s deepening economic crisis, including record-high inflation and the collapse of its currency, the rial, has culminated in the most widespread and deadly uprising since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The regime’s bloodthirsty tactics have testified to its growing desperation, and human-rights activist groups say that anywhere from 6,000 to 16,000 people have been killed. Trump has repeatedly signaled his willingness to intervene in support of the protesters, telling them via social media nearly three weeks ago that “HELP IS ON ITS WAY.” But there was little he could do at the time: The U.S. military was stretched thin, with its most crucial defensive assets stationed in the Caribbean and Pacific. Since then, the protests have quieted because of the government’s repression, calling into question whether strikes now would reignite the protests and potentially force out the regime—or just intensify violence in Iran and deepen instability across the Middle East. [Read: So this is what ‘America First’ looks like](https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2025/12/somalia-trump-america-first-military/685207/) Trump has demanded a resolution to the two countries’ long-standing disagreements about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The president said this week that Iran is interested in talks. But Iranian officials have publicly rejected making concessions, instead threatening a swift response to any U.S. attack. “Our brave Armed Forces are prepared—with their fingers on the trigger—to immediately and powerfully respond to ANY aggression against our beloved land, air, and sea,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote [on social media](https://x.com/araghchi/status/2016568541399445735?s=20) Wednesday evening. Diplomatic solutions remain possible. Araghchi arrived today in Turkey, which has acted in the past as an intermediary, to meet with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan. The Iranian foreign minister’s bellicose words should not be considered mere rhetoric, Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told us. Rather, Iran could be sending the message that it may conduct strikes far bigger than those it launched on an American base in Iraq following the 2020 U.S. assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s elite Quds Force. It may even go bigger than its retaliatory strikes on Israel after the June attack on its nuclear program. Keep reading _The Atlantic_. Get essential journalism for historic times. Starting at $79.99. Subscribe for one year of access and a role in supporting independent journalism. [Subscribe](https://accounts.theatlantic.com/products/?source=gate_below_fold) OR Try 30 days free and see how _The Atlantic_ fits into your life. [Start Free Trial](https://accounts.theatlantic.com/products/free-trial/?source=gate_below_fold) Already have an account? [Sign In](https://accounts.theatlantic.com/login/?source=gate_below_fold) to read this story, [sign in](https://www.theatlantic.com/login/?source=gate_toast), [start a free trial](https://accounts.theatlantic.com/products/?source=gate_toast), or [subscribe today](https://accounts.theatlantic.com/products/?source=gate_toast). Close ### About the Authors [](https://www.theatlantic.com/author/nancy-youssef/) [Nancy A. Youssef](https://www.theatlantic.com/author/nancy-youssef/) Follow [Vivian Salama](https://www.theatlantic.com/author/vivian-salama/) Follow Explore More Topics [Donald Trump](https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/person/donald-trump/), [Iran](https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/location/iran/), [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps](https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/organization/islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps/), [Marco Rubio](https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/person/marco-rubio/), [Nicolás Maduro](https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/person/nicolas-maduro/), [Tehran](https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/location/tehran/), [Venezuela](https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/location/venezuela/)