2024 YR4 — The asteroid that might hit the moon seven years from now - The Times of India

Article (Times of India, Dec 29, 2025): It could be the largest lunar impact event in 5,000 years. If it hits in December 2032, asteroid 2024 YR4 — believed to be 60 metres in diameter — may release the energy equivalent of six million tonnes of TNT, 400 times the power of the bomb over Hiroshima, and leave the Moon with a new crater about a kilometre wide. A flash will be visible from Earth. Experts quoted (Dr Andrew Rivkin, Johns Hopkins APL) expect a bright point of light visible across wide regions of Earth. Currently there’s ~4% chance of collision; the risk could rise or drop to zero after new observations. Scientists expect to refine trajectory when YR4 emerges from behind the Sun in a coming February (brief JWST imaging opportunity); next viewing window likely 2028. Concerns include debris threatening satellites and the opportunity to test lunar defence as lunar outposts are planned by mid-2030s. A September paper proposed nuclear disruption and timed launch windows (late 2029–late 2031) for intercept; deflection options (gravity tractors, ion beams) considered impractical until mass/composition are known and may require long durations to be effective. The only demonstrated planetary-defence test was the 2022 DART kinetic impactor against Dimorphos; experts say a kinetic impactor could 'robustly disrupt' a small object like 2024 YR4. Agencies (ESA Planetary Defence Office) state they will wait for better observations before any decision.